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【原创】维基百科'FOREX'翻译

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发表于 2009-12-29 01:07:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
前言

    很早以前就有翻译FOREX在维基百科的内容的冲动,但是一直懒于下手拖到现在才着手具体的工作,利用圣诞节市场平淡的机会把这个心愿了一了。
 
    因为维基百科的特点是可以实时更新的,我所摘取的内容是2009年12月中旬的版本,其中很多引用和数据大概是2007年及以前的了,所以如果大家有文中提到的数据的最新信息请跟帖指出,另外翻译若有不妥之处也请指出。

    希望大家一起讨论,丰富外汇的基础知识,打牢基本功才能长足进步,多赚美刀。

顶楼:前言
一楼:英文原文-第一部分
二楼:英文原文-第二部分
三楼:中文译文-第一部分
四楼:中文译文-第二部分
五楼:译者注解

鲁骨头
2009年圣诞节

P.S. 回复以后可以下载word版本的翻译稿件,每段中英文对照,包含关键词和超文本链接!

FOREX.rar (180 KB, 下载次数: 3641)
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-12-29 01:29:21 | 显示全部楼层

内容-英文原文-1

[align=justify]Foreign exchange market
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 
The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a worldwide decentralized over-the-counter financial market for the trading of currencies. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends.

The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to assist international trade and investment. The foreign exchange market allows businesses to convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.

In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.

The foreign exchange market is unique because of
  • trading volume resulting in market liquidity
  • geographical dispersion
  • continuous operation: 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e. trading from 20:15 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday
  • the variety of factors that affect exchange rates
  • the low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income
  • the use of leverage to enhance profit margins with respect to account size

As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks.[citation needed] According to the Bank for International Settlements,[1] average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion.[when?] Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this. This approximately $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:
  • $1.005 trillion in spot transactions
  • $362 billion in outright forwards
  • $1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
  • $129 billion estimated gaps in reporting


Contents

1 Market size and liquidity
2 Market participants
  2.1 Banks
  2.2 Commercial companies
  2.3 Central banks
  2.4 Hedge funds as speculators
  2.5 Investment management firms
  2.6 Retail foreign exchange brokers
  2.7 Non-bank foreign exchange companies
  2.8 Money transfer/remittance companies
3 Trading characteristics
4 Determinants of FX rates
  4.1 Economic factors
  4.2 Political conditions
  4.3 Market psychology
5 Algorithmic trading in foreign exchange
6 Financial instruments
  6.1 Spot
  6.2 Forward
  6.3 Future
  6.4 Swap
  6.5 Option
  6.6 Exchange-traded fund
7 Speculation
8 See also
9 References
10 External links
  


Market size and liquidity
 
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.The foreign exchange market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. Traders include large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other financial institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. [1] Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual FX Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.[2]
No.01 G_foreign_exchange_market_turnover.gif
Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%.[3] In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.

Exchange-traded FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts.

Several other developed countries also permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Most emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of prevalent controls on the capital accounts. However, a few select emerging countries (e.g., Korea, South Africa, India—[1]; [2]) have already successfully experimented with the currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account.

FX futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
No.02 Top10 of trading.PNG
Foreign exchange trading increased by 38% between April 2005 and April 2006 and has more than doubled since 2001. This is largely due to the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class and an increase in fund management assets, particularly of hedge funds and pension funds. The diverse selection of execution venues have made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market. In 2006, retail traders constituted over 2% of the whole FX market volumes with an average daily trade volume of over US$50-60 billion (see retail trading platforms).[5] Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to IFSL estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 31.3% in April 2004 to 34.1% in April 2007. The ten most active traders account for almost 80% of trading volume, according to the 2008 Euromoney FX survey.[2] These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market taker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale or retail customer. The customer will buy from the market-maker at the higher "ask" price, and will sell at the lower "bid" price, thus giving up the "spread" as the cost of completing the trade. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually 0–3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203 on a retail broker. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually 100,000 units of base currency, which is a standard "lot".

These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100/1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000/1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' checks. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 3 pips wide (i.e., 0.0003). Competition is greatly increased with larger transactions, and pip spreads shrink on the major pairs to as little as 1 to 2 pips.


Market participants

Unlike a stock market, the foreign exchange market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest commercial banks and securities dealers. Within the inter-bank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and usually unavailable, and not known to players outside the inner circle. The difference between the bid and ask prices widens (from 0-1 pip to 1-2 pips for some currencies such as the EUR). This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the foreign exchange market are determined by the size of the "line" (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all transactions. After that there are usually smaller banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail FX-metal market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size” Central banks also participate in the foreign exchange market to align currencies to their economic needs.

Banks
The interbank market caters for both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is conducted by proprietary desks, trading for the bank's own account. Until recently, foreign exchange brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for small fees. Today, however, much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems. The broker squawk box lets traders listen in on ongoing interbank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago.

Commercial companies
An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other market participants.

Central banks
National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the market. Milton Friedman argued that the best stabilization strategy would be for central banks to buy when the exchange rate is too low, and to sell when the rate is too high—that is, to trade for a profit based on their more precise information. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of central bank "stabilizing speculation" is doubtful because central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.

The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank.[6] Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in Southeast Asia.


Hedge funds as speculators
About 70% to 90%[citation needed] of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

Investment management firms
Investment management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of customers such as pension funds and endowments) use the foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager bearing an international equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currencies to pay for foreign securities purchases.

Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay operations, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. Whilst the number of this type of specialist firms is quite small, many have a large value of assets under management (AUM), and hence can generate large trades.


Retail foreign exchange brokers
Retail traders (individuals) constitute a growing segment of this market, both in size and importance. Currently, they participate indirectly through brokers or banks. Retail brokers, while largely controlled and regulated in the USA by the CFTC and NFA have in the past been subjected to periodic foreign exchange scams.[7][8] To deal with the issue, the NFA and CFTC began (as of 2009) imposing stricter requirements, particularly in relation to the amount of Net Capitalization required of its members. As a result many of the smaller, and perhaps questionable brokers are now gone.

There are two main types of retail FX brokers offering the opportunity for speculative currency trading: brokersand dealers or market makers. Brokers serve as an agent of the customer in the broader FX market, by seeking the best price in the market for a retail order and dealing on behalf of the retail customer. They charge a commission or mark-up in addition to the price obtained in the market. Dealers or market makers, by contrast, typically act as principal in the transaction versus the retail customer, and quote a price they are willing to deal at—the customer has the choice whether or not to trade at that price.

In assessing the suitability of a FX trading services, the customer should consider the ramifications of whether the service provider is acting as principal or agent. When the service provider acts as agent, the customer is generally assured of a known cost above the best inter-dealer FX rate. When the service provider acts as principal, no commission is paid, but the price offered may not be the best available in the market—since the service provider is taking the other side of the transaction, a conflict of interest may occur.


Non-bank foreign exchange companies
Non-bank foreign exchange companies offer currency exchange and international payments to private individuals and companies. These are also known as foreign exchange brokers but are distinct in that they do not offer speculative trading but currency exchange with payments. I.e., there is usually a physical delivery of currency to a bank account. Send Money Home offer an in-depth comparison into the services offered by all the major non-bank foreign exchange companies.

It is estimated that in the UK, 14% of currency transfers/payments[9] are made via Foreign Exchange Companies.[10] These companies' selling point is usually that they will offer better exchange rates or cheaper payments than the customer's bank. These companies differ from Money Transfer/Remittance Companies in that they generally offer higher-value services.


Money transfer/remittance companies
Money transfer companies/remittance companies perform high-volume low-value transfers generally by economic migrants back to their home country. In 2007, the Aite Group estimated that there were $369 billion of remittances (an increase of 8% on the previous year). The four largest markets (India, China, Mexico and the Philippines) receive $95 billion. The largest and best known provider is Western Union with 345,000 agents globally followed by UAE Exchange Financial Service Ltd

Send Money Home is an international money transfer price comparison site that allows consumers access to a range of alternative products and rates available when remitting (transferring) money worldwide.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-12-29 02:00:59 | 显示全部楼层

内容-英文原文-2

Trading characteristics

There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of FX trades, and there is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs instantaneously. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. A joint venture of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fxmarketspace opened in 2007 and aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism.
No.03 Most traded currencies.PNG
The main trading center is London, but New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day; as the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.

Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory), interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers' order flow.

Currencies are traded against one another. Each currency pair thus constitutes an individual trading product and is traditionally noted XXXYYY or YYY/XXX, where XXX and YYY are the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currencies involved. The first currency (XXX) is the base currency that is quoted relative to the second currency (YYY), called the counter currency (or quote currency). For instance, the quotation EUR/USD 1.5465 is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, meaning 1 euro = 1.5465 dollars. Historically, the base currency was the stronger currency at the creation of the pair. However, when the euro was created, the European Central Bank mandated that it always be the base currency in any pairing.

The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXXYYY and XXXZZZ. This causes positive currency correlation between XXXYYY and XXXZZZ.

On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
  • EURUSD: 27%
  • USDJPY: 13%
  • GBPUSD (also called cable): 12%
and the US currency was involved in 86.3% of transactions, followed by the euro (37.0%), the yen (17.0%), and sterling (15.0%) (see table). Volume percentages for all individual currencies should add up to 200%, as each transaction involves two currencies.

Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollar-centered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EURUSD and USDZZZ. The exception to this is EURJPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased dramatically. Transactions in the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased.

Determinants of FX rates
See also: exchange rates
The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions: Relative Purchasing Power Parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate): This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate): views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”

None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.

Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.

Economic factors
These include:
(a)economic policy, disseminated by government agencies and central banks,
(b)economic conditions, generally revealed through economic reports, and other economic indicators.
• Economic policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).
• Government budget deficits or surpluses: The market usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's currency.
• Balance of trade levels and trends: The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
• Inflation levels and trends: Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level of inflation in the country or if inflation levels are perceived to be rising. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates to combat rising inflation.
• Economic growth and health: Reports such as GDP, employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization and others, detail the levels of a country's economic growth and health. Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy, the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for it there will be.
• Productivity of an economy: Increasing productivity in an economy should positively influence the value of its currency. Its effects are more prominent if the increase is in the traded sector [3].

Political conditions
Internal, regional, and international political conditions and events can have a profound effect on currency markets.

All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the new ruling party. Political upheaval and instability can have a negative impact on a nation's economy. For example, destabilization of coalition governments in Pakistan and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their currencies. Similarly, in a country experiencing financial difficulties, the rise of a political faction that is perceived to be fiscally responsible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in a region may spur positive/negative interest in a neighboring country and, in the process, affect its currency.

Market psychology
Market psychology and trader perceptions influence the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways:
• Flights to quality: Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to quality," with investors seeking a "safe haven." There will be a greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts. The Swiss franc and gold have been traditional safe havens during times of political or economic uncertainty.[11]
• Long-term trends: Currency markets often move in visible long-term trends. Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt. Cycle analysis looks at longer-term price trends that may rise from economic or political trends.[12]
• "Buy the rumor, sell the fact": This market truism can apply to many currency situations. It is the tendency for the price of a currency to reflect the impact of a particular action before it occurs and, when the anticipated event comes to pass, react in exactly the opposite direction. This may also be referred to as a market being "oversold" or "overbought".[13] To buy the rumor or sell the fact can also be an example of the cognitive bias known as anchoring, when investors focus too much on the relevance of outside events to currency prices.
• Economic numbers: While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like effect: the number itself becomes important to market psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in the spotlight.
• Technical trading considerations: As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a currency pair such as EUR/USD can form apparent patterns that traders may attempt to use. Many traders study price charts in order to identify such patterns.[14]


Algorithmic trading in foreign exchange
Electronic trading is growing in the FX market, and algorithmic trading is becoming much more common. According to financial consultancy Celent estimates, by 2008 up to 25% of all trades by volume will be executed using algorithm, up from about 18% in 2005.[citation needed]

Financial instruments
Spot
A spot transaction is a two-day delivery transaction (except in the case of trades between the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Turkish Lira and Russian Ruble, which settle the next business day), as opposed to the futures contracts, which are usually three months. This trade represents a “direct exchange” between two currencies, has the shortest time frame, involves cash rather than a contract; and interest is not included in the agreed-upon transaction. The data for this study come from the spot market. Spot transactions has the second largest turnover by volume after Swap transactions among all FX transactions in the Global FX market. NNM

Forward
See also: forward contract
One way to deal with the foreign exchange risk is to engage in a forward transaction. In this transaction, money does not actually change hands until some agreed upon future date. A buyer and seller agree on an exchange rate for any date in the future, and the transaction occurs on that date, regardless of what the market rates are then. The duration of the trade can be a one day, a few days, months or years. Usually the date is decided by both parties.

Future
Main article: currency future
Foreign currency futures are exchange traded forward transactions with standard contract sizes and maturity dates — for example, $1000 for next November at an agreed rate [4],[5]. Futures are standardized and are usually traded on an exchange created for this purpose. The average contract length is roughly 3 months. Futures contracts are usually inclusive of any interest amounts.

Swap
Main article: foreign exchange swap
The most common type of forward transaction is the currency swap. In a swap, two parties exchange currencies for a certain length of time and agree to reverse the transaction at a later date. These are not standardized contracts and are not traded through an exchange.

Option
Main article: foreign exchange option
A foreign exchange option (commonly shortened to just FX option) is a derivative where the owner has the right but not the obligation to exchange money denominated in one currency into another currency at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date. The FX options market is the deepest, largest and most liquid market for options of any kind in the world..

Exchange-traded fund
Main article: exchange-traded fund
Exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) are open ended investment companies that can be traded at any time throughout the course of the day. Typically, ETFs try to replicate a stock market index such as the S&amp 500 (e.g., SPY), but recently they are now replicating investments in the currency markets with the ETF increasing in value when the US Dollar weakens versus a specific currency, such as the Euro. Certain of these funds track the price movements of world currencies versus the US Dollar, and increase in value directly counter to the US Dollar, allowing for speculation in the US Dollar for US and US Dollar denominated investors and speculators.

Speculation
Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, economists including Milton Friedman have argued that speculators ultimately are a stabilizing influence on the market and perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do.[15] Other economists such as Joseph Stiglitz consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.[16]

Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators. According to some economists, individual traders could act as "noise traders" and have a more destabilizing role than larger and better informed actors [17].

Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries.[where?] While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not; according to this view, it is simply gambling that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 500% per annum, and later to devalue the krona.[18] Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.

Gregory J. Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.[19]

In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and foreign exchange speculators allegedly made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions. Given that Malaysia recovered quickly after imposing currency controls directly against International Monetary Fund advice, this view is open to doubt.

See also
  • Balance of trade
  • Bretton Woods system
  • Currency pair
  • Foreign currency mortgage
  • Foreign exchange hedge
  • Foreign exchange reserves
  • Foreign exchange scam
  • Foreign exchange swap
  • Nonfarm payrolls
  • Retail foreign exchange
  • Special Drawing Rights
  • Technical analysis
  • Tobin Tax
  • World currency
  • Currency codes
  • money market

References
No.04 Reference.png
External links
Benchmark Currency Rates from Bloomberg
CFTC Commission Advisory Customer fraud Protection
New York FED
United States Federal Reserve daily update
Microstructure effects, bid-ask spreads and volatility in the spot foreign exchange market pre and post-EMU Technical description of FX market workings.
OECD Exchange rate statistics

Categories: Foreign exchange market
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-12-29 02:21:10 | 显示全部楼层

内容-中文译文-1

外汇交易市场
源自维基百科,自由的百科全书

        外汇交易市场(亦作: FOREX、FX 或者货币市场)分散在世界各地以交换货币为目的的柜台交易金融市场。除周末以外,世界的各个金融中心昼夜不停的吸引各式各样类型不同的买家和卖家进行交易。

        外汇交易市场的目的是帮助国际贸易和投资。外汇交易市场帮助商业单位将一国货币转换 为他国货币。例如,尽管一家美国公司的收入是美元,但是借助外汇市场它能够进口欧洲 货物并支付欧元,

      在一个典型的外汇交易中,通过支付另一国的货币来购进一定数量某国货币。现代外汇交 易市场形成于上世纪70年代,当时各国逐渐从之前固定汇率的布雷顿森林体系转换到浮动 汇率体制上来。

外汇交易市场的独特之处在于:
   • 巨大的交易量导致市场充分的流动性,
   • 它地域上的散布特性,
   • 长交易时间:除周末外每天24小时可交易(世界标准时间GMT周日晚20:15到周五晚22:00),
   • 汇率受众多因素的影响,
   • 与其他固定收益市场相比较低的利润率(但是可能因为巨大的成交量而获得高收益)
   • 杠杆的使用

      正因如此,尽管有央行操纵[尚需引证],它仍被认为是最接近完全(美)理想竞争状态的市场。根据国际清算银行[2],外汇交易市场全球日均交易额估计达到3.98万亿美元。其中有3.21万亿美元在世界主要金融市场得到记录。构成3.21万亿美元的交易额主要由以下分类构成:
   • 1.005万亿美元的即期交易
   • 3620亿美元的远期直接汇率交易
   • 1.714万亿的外汇掉期交易
   • 1290亿美元估算是报告中的缺口

词条目录
1 市场规模和流动性
2 市场参与者
  2.1 银行
  2.2 商业公司
  2.3 央行
  2.4 投机对冲基金 
  2.5 资产管理公司
  2.6 外汇交易零售商
  2.7 非银行外汇交易公司
  2.8 经营汇款业务的公司
3 交易特点
4 外汇兑换率的决定因素
  4.1 经济因素
  4.2 政治因素
  4.3 市场心理
5 货币市场的自动交易
6 金融工具
  6.1 即期
  6.2 远期
  6.3 期货
  6.4 掉期
  6.5 期权
  6.6 交易型开放式基金
7 投机
8 参考
9 文献引用
10 外部链接

1.市场规模和流动性
        外汇交易市场是世界上规模最大、流动性最强的金融市场。交易者包括大型银行、中央银行、货币投机者、公司、各国政府和其他金融机构。全球外汇交易和相关市场每日成交量持续增长。国际清算银行2007年4月的报告称日均交易额超过3.2万亿美元[2]。自那时起,市场持续增长。根据欧洲货币年报FX Poll称交易量在2007年到2008年间交易量增长了41%还多(译者:见插图1)。
No.01 G_foreign_exchange_market_turnover.gif
插图1

        每日3.98万亿的交易额中,在伦敦成交的约1.36万亿美元,占总额34.1%,该数字让伦敦到目前为止保持全球外汇交易中心的地位。第二、第三非别是16.6%在纽约成交,东京交易占6%。[4] 另外,除了传统的交易额,还有衍生品交易约2.1万亿美元。

      芝加哥商业交易所在1972年引入了交换-贸易外汇远期合约,并在多数其他远期合约交易中得到积极使用。

      其他一些发达国家也允许在其交易所对外汇衍生品进行交易(如:外汇远期合约和基于外汇远期合约的期权)。所有这些发达国家拥有完全可兑换的资本账户。考虑到为了控制资本账户大多数新兴国家不允许外汇衍生品在其交易所交易。尽管如此,少数新兴国家(例如:韩国、南非、印度[1][2])在一定程度控制资本账户的基础上已经成功的试行了货币远期交易。

      外汇远期交易额在最近几年迅速增长,占全球外汇交易市场份额大概7%,资料源于华尔街年报欧洲版(2006年5月5日第20页)。  
No.02 Top10 of trading.PNG
插图2

        外汇交易在2005年4月至2006年4月间增长了38%,比2001年更是增长了1倍以上。这大部分是由于外汇交易作为一种资产的重要性得到增强和基金资产管理的增加,特别是对冲基金和退休基金。外汇交易场所的多样性使得零售交易者易于加入外汇交易市场。2006年零售交易构成全球外汇交易市场日均成交份额的2%以上,约500-600亿美元(见零售交易平台)[6]。因为外汇交易是一种场外交易市场(译者:即OTC市场),交易者或者券商直接与其他的交易者协商价格,并没有固定的交易中心或者清算场所。地理上最大的交易中心在英国,主要是伦敦,根据伦敦国际金融服务局估算在传统交易中其所占的全球份额从2004年4月份的31.3%增长到2007年4月的34.1%。根据2008年欧洲货币外汇调查报告[3],10个最大的活跃交易账户占据大概总成交量的80%(译者:见插图2)。这些大型跨国银行持续的向市场提供叫价(买盘)和要价(卖盘)价格。叫价和要价的点差是银行或做市商将要卖出的价格与通过批发商或零售客户的市场承接人将要买入的价格的差额(译者:点差即spread,关于点差更多的信息见译者注脚)。客户从做市商较高要价的买入,并从较低的叫价卖出,因此’点差’成为完成整个交易的成本。对于活跃交易的货币点差通常是0-3个点。例如,某个零售商的EUR/USD叫价和要价是1.2200、1.2203。多数交易的最小交易量是100,000单位的基础货币,也称为一个标准手。

      点差也许不适用于银行的零售客户,银行通常将兑换差额设置为1.2100/1.2300,又如纸币和旅行支票兑换率为1.2000/1.2400。市场上的现货价格变化很大,但是EUR/USD通常不会超过3个点的范围(也就是说0.0003)。大额交易极大的增加了竞争,也使得主要货币对的点差缩减到1-2个点。

2.市场参与者
        与股票市场不同,外汇交易市场根据接入等级不同而被划分。顶端是银行间市场,由最大型的商业银行和证券交易商构成。在银行间市场内,叫价和要价之间的差额即点差有如剃刀一般锋利,通常也是不可获得的,圈外人士更是难见庐山真面目。叫价和要价间的差额范围从0-1个点至1-2个点之间,(例如欧元就是这样)。这是由于成交量所致。如果一个交易者可以保证交易数量同时完成大量成交额,他们能够要求获得叫价和要价间更小的点差,通常被称为优势点差。决定是接入外汇市场级别的因素是”线”的规模(交易者的交易资金总数)。顶级的银行间帐户占有所有交易数额的53%。之后通常是小一些的银行,接着是大的跨国公司(需要对冲风险和使用不同货币支付雇员工资)、大型对冲基金和一些外汇-贵金属的做市零售商。根据Galati and Melvin 2004“总体来说在金融市场里,退休基金、保险公司、共同基金和其他国际投资者扮演了一个重要性持续增长的角色,特别是2000年后的外汇市场。”另外,他还指出“从数量和总额两方面来说,对冲基金在2001-2004年间都显著增长。”央行也因自身经济体需要而参与外汇交易市场的他国货币交易。

2.1 银行
        银行间市场迎合了每日的主要商业成交额和大量的投机交易。一个大型银行每日可能交易数十亿美元。其中一些交易是代表其客户的,但是多数则是执行银行自己专有帐户的交易。直到最近,外汇经济商通过低廉的费用将银行间交易同匿名的对手相连接也构成了大量的交易。今天,尽管如此,大多数的业务已经被移到高效的电子系统中。经纪商的内部系统让交易者能够持续的观察到银行间市场的交易情况,并且也能从多数交易室中获得,但是交易额还是显著的小于(译者:银行间市场)几年前。

2.2 商业公司
        一个重要的市场参与者来自公司寻求使用外汇交换来支付货物或服务的财务活动。与银行和投机者相比,商业公司常常交易量更小,并且他们的交易对于市场利率通常会产生短期的影响。然而,对于长期的货币兑换率而言,贸易流动是一个重要因素。当一些跨国公司隐藏了非常大量的头寸而又不被其他市场参与者所获知的情况下,他们就会拥有不可预测的影响力。

2.3 各国央行
        在外汇交易市场中央行扮演一个重要的角色。他们试图控制货币供给、通胀和(或)利率,并且常常给本国货币设定一个官方或者非官方的目标利率。他们能使用手中可观的外汇储备来稳定市场。Milton Friedman提出对于央行而言最好的市场稳定策略是当汇率过低时买入,当汇率太高时卖出,也就是说基于央行更精确的信息来获取交易利润。然后,央行“稳定性投机”的效率备受质疑,因为央行并不会像其他交易者那样因大量的损失而破产,并且也没有确凿的证据显示他们确实在为盈利而交易。

      仅仅是央行的预期或者谣言就足够稳定一国货币,但是很多不纯净浮动汇率制度的国家每年都会使用多次过度的干涉。央行也不总是能够达成他们的目标。市场资源结合在一起便能轻易的推翻任何央行(译者:指央行的干涉行为)。在1992-1993年间汇率机制崩溃,更近的是东南亚国家多次出现了类似的场景。

2.4 投机者对冲基金
        大约70%-90%(尚需引证)的外汇交易属于投机性质。换言之,买入或者卖出货币的人们和机构并没有将货币最终放到何处的计划,而是,完全对特定的货币的运动做投机交易。自1996年以来对冲基金以攻击性的货币投机而闻名于世。他们控制几十亿美元的资本金并可能再借款几十亿或者更多,如果经济基本面符合对冲基金的胃口的话,征服各国央行对几乎所有货币的支持也不在话下。

2.5 资产管理公司
        资产管理公司(特点是代表众多客户管理大量的帐户,例如退休基金和慈善基金)使用外汇交易市场来完成对外币证券的交易。例如,某投资经理经营一个跨国资产组合而需要购买外币计价的证券而对一些货币对进行购买或者卖出的交易。

      一些资产管理公司也拥有较多的货币投机专业人员,在一定风险的限度下使用客户的敞口以制造利润为目的而交易。然而这类专业公司数量很少,更多的则是因管理大量的资产而产生的交易。

2.6 零售外汇交易券商
        零售交易者(即个人投资者)构成了市场上迅速增长的一个群体,不论是规模还是重要性方面。目前,他们通过券商或者银行间接的参与市场。在美国,针对过去周期性的外汇交易欺骗,零售券商大体上受到美国商品与期货交易委员会(CFTC)和美国期货经纪商协会(NFA)的控制和监管。为了应付这个问题,美国期货经纪商协会和美国商品与期货交易委员会开始(于2009年),特别在要求会员单位净资本总额方面,引入了更为严格的要求。结果导致许多小型或者有问题的券商现在离开了(译者:指离开美国)。

      有两种主要类型的外汇零售商对投机性质的交易提供接入机会:券商和发牌交易员或者做市商。在广泛的外汇市场上券商作为客户的代理人提供服务,在市场上为零售订单寻找最优的价格并且代表零售客户进行交易。他们收取佣金或者在市场上获得的价格外增高标价。挂牌交易员或者做市商,相反,典型的作为零售客户的主要交易对手,并且报出他们愿意成交的价格——客户可以选择是否按照那个价格成交。

      在评估一个外汇交易服务是否合适的时候,顾客应该考虑服务提供商是按照交易对手还是代理进行交易。若按照代理提供服务,客户大概能够确保得到一个外汇交易者之间透明价格之上的成本。若按照交易对手提供服务,则无需支付佣金,但是所提供的价格也许不是市场上最优的价格——因为服务提供者承接交易的另一面,相冲突的利息可能会发生。(译者:更多信息见译者注解“券商”)

2.7 非银行外汇交易公司
        非银行外汇交易公司对个人和公司提供外汇交易和跨国支付服务。这些组织也被称作外汇交易券商,但不同的是他们不提供投机交易,而是提供用于支付目的的货币兑换,也就是说通常都会有实际的货币交付到某一银行账户。送钱回家(Send Money Home,译者:经查是一家网站,提供价格比较服务,本节末尾有解释)在所有主要的非银行外汇交易公司间提供一种深入的比较。

      在英国估计有14%的货币交易或者支付是通过外汇交易公司完成的。这些公司的(外币)售价通常优于或者低于客户银行所提供的报价。这些公司不同于换钱/汇款公司因为他们提供高质量的服务。(译者:在英国确实兑换货币是一个行业,不仅由银行或邮局经营,大小遍地的外币兑换是一道街景)

2.8 换钱/汇款公司
        换钱/汇款公司提供一种高容量低价值的兑换服务,主要面对经济移民汇款回祖国的业务。2007年,Aite Group(译者:一家提供金融和商务的研究、咨询机构)估计有3690亿美元的汇款(比上一年增加8%)。最大的四个市场(印度、中国、墨西哥和菲律宾)收到950亿美元。最大的也是广为人知的西联汇款全球拥有34.5万分理处,随后是UAE金融兑换服务公司(译者:没听说过)。

      送钱回家(Send Money Home)是一家国际换钱价格比较网站,给需要向世界其他地区汇款的用户提供一系列产品和利率进行比较。


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 楼主| 发表于 2009-12-29 02:24:56 | 显示全部楼层

内容-中文译文-2

3.交易特点
No.03 Most traded currencies.PNG
插图3 (被交易最多的货币)

      对于主要的外汇交易没有统一的或者中央性质的交易清算市场,也缺乏跨国界的规则体系。由于货币市场是柜台交易的特性,而有一些不同的货币工具被交易的互相关联的市场存在。这就意味着没有一个单独的兑换汇率,而根据使用不同的银行或者做市商交易存在很多不同的汇率(价格)。在实践中众多汇率都非常接近,否则他们(译者:指上文提到的银行和做市商)有可能被套汇交易者瞬间剥削。由于伦敦在市场上的统治地位,某一特定的货币报价通常是指伦敦市场上的价格。一个由芝加哥商品交易所和路透合资组建的叫做Fxmarketspace的交易市场于2007年开市,期望成为市场中心的清算机制,但是其努力失败了(译者:该市场已于2008年10月10日宣布关闭)。

    主要的交易中心是伦敦,但是纽约、东京、香港和新加坡也是重要的中心。全世界众多银行参与其中。货币交易在一天中持续进行,除了周末两天,当亚盘交易结束后欧洲市场开市交易,接下来是北美市场交易时段然后又回到亚盘时段。

    货币兑换率的波动通常因为实际现金流动,也会因国民生产总值增长的变化对现金流动预期的影响而变化,还有通货膨胀(购买力平价理论)、利率(利率平价、国民费雪效应、国际费雪效应(译者:这两个效应理论的相关资料欠奉,原文为“Domestic Fisher effect”, “International Fisher effect”))、预算和贸易赤字或盈余、大型跨国公司并购交易和其他宏观经济条件。如期公布的主要的新闻消息,大多数人可以同时看到同样的消息,尽管如此,大型银行具有重要的优势,他们可以看到他们客户的挂盘。

    货币是针对另一方的交易。每一个货币对都构成一个独立的交易产品,并传统上标记为XXXYYY或者YYY/XXX,其中XXX和YYY是ISO4217与货币相关的国际三码国际标准。第一个货币代码(XXX)是基础货币,用相对的第二个货币(YYY)来表示其价格,也被叫做对手货币(或报价货币)。例如:EUR/USD报1.5465是用美元来表示欧元的价格,意思是1欧元=1.5465美元。历史上看基础货币是在创造该货币对时较强势的货币。但是当欧元出现以后,欧洲中央银行却要求在所有货币对中欧元作为基础货币(更多信息见译者注解:“老欧洲”)。

    影响XXX货币的因素同样会影响XXXYYY和XXXZZZ。这会导致XXXYYY和XXXZZZ之间正相关的货币关系。

    在即期市场上,根据国际清算银行的研究显示,交易最活跃的货币对是:
         • EURUSD: 27%
         • USDJPY: 13%
         • GBPUSD: 12%  (也称作“电缆”(见译者注解:“电缆”))

    另外,美国货币与所有交易中的86.3%相关,之后是欧元的37.0%,日元17.0%,英镑15.0%,见插图3。各货币占比之和应该为200%因为在每个交易中涉及两种货币。

    自从1999年欧元出现以来,与欧元相关的交易显著的增长了,以美元为中心的货币交易市场还能持续多长时间开始受到质疑。直到最近,涉及欧元对某非欧元区货币ZZZ时通常会涉及两个交易,即:EURUSD和USDZZZ。EURJPY是一个例外,在银行间即期市场它已经是一个成熟的交易货币对。由于2008年美元的价值受到侵蚀,市场使用欧元作为商品市场(如石油)的计价货币的兴趣引人注目的增加了,同样的情况也发生在银行的外汇储备组成成分中。在资源生产国的货币中,诸如:澳元、纽元(译者:即新西兰的官方货币)、加元也有增长。

4.决定汇率的因素
参见:汇率

    下面的这些理论解释了浮动汇率体制下汇率波动的原因(固定汇率体制下汇率由政府决定):

(a)国际平价条件:相关的购买力平价、利率平价、国内费雪效应、国际费雪效应。尽管上面的理论为汇率波动从某种程度上提供了逻辑上的解释,然而这些理论因其立论基础(例如:商品、服务和资本的自由流动)广受挑战而显得步履蹒跚,在现实世界中更是难以吻合实际情况。

(b)支付平衡模型(见“汇率”):尽管,这个模型关注大量的可交易商品和服务,但是忽略了全球资本流动显见的重要性。他对于上世纪80年代美元持续升值不能做出任何解释,也不能应对上世纪90年代美国现金账户大量赤字的出现。

(c)资产市场模型(见“汇率”):认为货币作为构成投资组合的一类重要的资产。资产价格主要受人们对现有数量的资产的持有意愿影响,这反过来取决于他们对这些资产未来价格的期望。汇率资产市场模型决定论认为“两种货币间的汇率代表了能够平衡以相关货币计价的资产供给和需求的价格。”

      在长期的框架下,没有任何一种模型能够成功的解释汇率水平和其变化无常。短期看来(指少于几天的时间),自动交易程序(见译者注解:“自动交易”)可以被设计出来用于预测价格。大大小小的机构和个人职业交易人员从中获取持续的利润。他是考虑众多影响汇率的宏观经济因素,并根据上面这些模型设计出来认为价格最终是需求和供给两种力量的结果。全球货币市场可以看做一个正在融化的巨大茶壶:一个充满永恒变数和混杂大量时事,供给和需求的因素时刻变化着,相应的一种货币与其他货币的价格也时刻变化着。没有任何一个其他市场像外汇市场一样时时刻刻包含(同时也在蒸发)世界上的最新动态。

      不论哪种货币的供给和需求,乃至它的价值,都不被单一因素左右,而是众多因素的综合结果。这些因素大体上落入以下三个类别内:经济因素、政治条件和市场心理。

4.1 经济因素
      这些包括:(a)由政府部门和中央银行颁布的经济政策;(b)主要通过经济报告揭示的经济状况和经济指标。
    • 经济政策包括政府财政政策(预算、支出情况)和货币政策(通过政府的中央银行影响供给和通过利率表现出的货币“成本”)。
    • 政府预算赤字或盈余:市场一般对政府扩大赤字预算做出负面反应,并对赤字缩减做出积极回应。这种作用反映了一国货币的价值。
    • 贸易平衡水平及趋势:国家间的贸易流动显示了货物和服务的需求,反过来指出一国货币用于贸易的需求大小。贸易和服务交易中的盈余和赤字反应了国家间的经济竞争。例如:贸易赤字将会对一国货币产生负面影响。
    • 通货膨胀水平及趋势:通常如果一国经历高水平的通胀或者通胀水平即将升高,该国货币将会损失其价值。这是因为通胀侵蚀了其购买能力,同样对该货币的需求也同样受影响。尽管如此,当通胀来临时市场预期央行会提高短期利率以应对通胀,该国货币亦可能间或变强。
    • 经济增长和健康:诸如GDP报告、就业水平、零售数据、资本利用率和其他,均可表明一国的经济增长和健康状况。大致上,一国经济月健康越充满活力,她的货币将会表现越好,当然对其货币的需求也会越越发旺盛。
    • 经济体产出能力(译者:即“产能利用率”):产能利用率增加将会对该经济体货币造成正面影响。如果这些增长出现在贸易项下,那么其效果就愈发明显[3]。
(本节注释见译者注解:“经济数据”)

4.2 政治状况
      国内、地区和国际政治状况和事件对货币市场有极其深刻的影响。
      所有汇率对新上台执政党的不稳定性和预期非常敏感。政治剧变和政局波动对一国经济具有负面效应。例如:巴基斯坦和泰国政局的骚动对该国货币会产生负面影响。同样的,一国面临财政困难时,市场感觉到手握该国财政大权的政党或派系抬头时则会产生相反的效果。还有,某地区中的一个国家的事件可能积极地/消极地刺激邻国利率,在这个过程中,影响其货币。
(本节译者注解:见“政治影响汇率”)

4.3 市场心理
市场心理和交易者的观念通过不同的途径影响外汇交易市场:
    • 资本逃逸:不确定的国际事件会导致投资者寻求“安全港”的“资本逃逸”现象。相对其他对手货币,较坚挺的货币需求会有大幅增加,从而抬高其价格。当政治、经济出现不确定性时,瑞士法郎和黄金被传统上认为是安全港。[11]
    • 长期趋势:货币市场通常向可见的长期趋势运动。尽管,货币不像实物商品一般按照年份递增, 但是商业周期确实让人能够感受到这一点。商业周期分析家从经济或者政治趋势中来观察长期价格趋势。[12]
    • “买传闻,卖事实”:这个市场的至理真言能用到很多货币状况上。在某事件即将发生前,市场会反应其尚未到来的真实影响,当期待的事件来临市场反应却又正好相反。这也可能是由于市场“超卖”或“超买”所致。[13]买谣传或卖事实也有可能是当投资者过于关注事件对货币价格产生影响的认知偏见的一个例子。
(译者注:本段中提到的事件,很多时候指经济数据发表或者高级官员的谈话,参看译者注解“经济数据”;这一段很难翻译,作者有欲言又止的意思,特别注意其对事件发生前市场反应的那句评述。)
    • 经济数据:经济数据肯定可以反应已经政策,一些报告和数据具有护身符的作用:数据本身重要的导致市场心理并且对短期走势起到立竿见影的作用。市场焦点会随时而变。例如,在最近几年,货币供给、劳动就业水平、贸易平衡数字和通胀数字都受聚光灯的照耀。
    • 技术派交易的影响:在其他的市场,交易者会试图利用某个货币对如EUR/USD价格累计移动形成明显的样式。很多交易者研究价格图表以便找到相似的样式。[14](译者:即我们常说的经验技术派。)

5. 外汇市场的自动交易
      电子交易在外汇市场持续成长,并且自动交易变得越来越常见。根据金融顾问机构Celent估算到2008年25%的交易额是自动交易产生的,而2005年这一数字是18%。

6. 金融工具
6.1 即期交易或现货交易
      现货交易是一种为期两天的交易(除以下交易是次日交割外:美元与加拿大元、土耳其里拉和俄罗斯卢布),这与远期合约三个月交割所不同。这种交易代表两种货币间的“直接交换”,交割时间最短,只涉及现金而不是合约;互相认可的交易中也不包括利息(译者:原文如此,意思是利息另算)。这些研究的数据来源于现货市场。在全球所有外汇交易中现货交易是继掉期互换交易之后交易额第二大的金融工具。

6.2 远期交易
参见:远期合约
      处理外汇交易风险的一种办法就是执行一个远期交易。这种交易,在约定的未来某个日期前资金并不真实的转手。买方和卖方同意按照确定的汇率在未来某天进行交割,不论当时的汇率是何种状况。交易所花的时间可能是一天,几天,几个月或者数年。通常日期是双方共同确定的。

6.3 期货
主要文章参见:货币期货
      外汇期货是被确定标准合约数量和确定日期的远期交易——例如,$1000美元在11月份按照约定的汇率(进行交易)[4][5]。期货是标准化了的,并且通常按照这个目标被创造出来用于交易。合约期限一般是3个月。期货合约通常包括了所有利息的总额。(译者:相对即期交易利息另算,期货已经包括了利息在内不必另算了。)

6.4 掉期互换
主要文章参见:外汇交易掉期互换
      最常见的远期交易是货币掉期互换。在一个掉期互换中,双方按照一定时间期限的长度交易货币,并且在之后的某日再颠倒过来交易一次。这些不是标准化的合约并且不经过交易所进行。

6.5 期权
主要文章参见:外汇交易期权
      外汇交易期权(通常缩写为外汇期权)是物主有权但不是必须的按照预先确定的汇率和指定的日期将一种货币兑换成另一种货币的交易衍生。外汇期权市场是世界上所有期权市场中程度最深、规模最大、流动性最高的市场。

6.6 交易型开放式基金
主要文章参见:交易型开放式基金
      交易型开放式基金(即ETFs基金)是全日面向终端开放可交易的投资公司。典型的ETFs试图复制诸如标准普尔500指数的股票市场指数,但是最近,当美元兑其他货币(如:欧元)走弱的时候,他们综合货币市场的投资品种制成能使ETF增值的基金。这中的某些基金追踪世界其他货币对美元的走势,允许美国和以美元命名的投资者和投机者对美元投机,从而在对美元的打击中产生直接的升值。

7. 投机

      对于货币投机者和他们对货币贬值、国家经济带来的效果一直以来饱受争议。然而,包括Milton Friedman在内的经济学家指出,投机者最终给市场带来稳定作用,履行为套期保值者提供市场机会的重要职能,并将市场风险从那些不愿意承担风险的人转移到原意承担风险的人那去。[15]另外一些经济学家,诸如:Joseph Stiglitz认为这种观点更多的是基于政治上的考虑或出于维护自由市场的理念而不是讨论经济学本身。[16]

      大型对冲基金和其他资本充足的“头寸交易者”是主要的职业投机者。根据一些经济学家的观点,个人交易者可以算作“噪音交易者”并且比拥有充分信息的大型玩家更具不稳定性。[17](见译者注解:“个人投资者的角色”)

      货币投机在很多国家是受到高度怀疑的活动[哪里?尚需指明]。投资于传统金融工具如债券或者股票经常被认为有助于筹资活动从而有利于经济增长,而货币投机则不然;根据这种观点,货币投机只是单纯的赌博行为并常常干扰经济政策。例如,1992年,货币投机的力量致使瑞典央行提高利率至500%每年,之后又将瑞典克朗贬值[18]。前任马来西亚首相马哈蒂尔•穆哈穆德是持此观点的著名人物。他指责马来西亚吉林特在1997年由于乔治索罗斯和其他投机者的行为致使了货币严重贬值。

      乔治J米尔曼持相反的观点,他将投机者比作市场的“积极分子”,他们只是帮助市场“强化”国际协议并预料到经济领域追求利润基本“规则”的结果。

      按照这种观点,各国所产生的不稳定的金融泡沫,或者粗暴的处理本国经济事务,货币投机者都能善加利用,并很快会带来不可避免的经济崩溃。相对较早到来的崩溃可能比经济持续的不正常运行要更好一些。马哈蒂尔•穆哈穆德和其他对投机行为持批评态度的人认为这是试图将他们的责任转移到经济不稳定的状况上。假如马来西亚能够从加强对货币的直接控制并迅速恢复过来,而不是听从国际货币基金组织的建议,这种观点就会变得值得争辩。(译者:文章作者看来并不同意上一段中提到的这种观点。)

8. 参考词条
    • 贸易平衡
    • 布雷顿森林体系(译者:阅读延伸吧主的帖子“外汇的历史”在本版第二页就能找到)
    • 货币对
    • 外汇按揭
    • 外汇管制
    • 外汇交易对冲
    • 外汇交易储备
    • 外汇交易欺骗
    • 外汇交易掉期互换
    • 非农业就业薪酬
    • 零售外汇交易
    • 特别提款权
    • 技术分析
    • 托宾税(译者:针对外汇交易的特别税收)
    • 世界货币
    • 货币代码
    • 货币市场

9. 文献引用
(译者:请参考英文原文)

10. 外部链接
    • 彭博社汇率基准
    • 美国商品与期货交易委员会咨询客户欺诈保护
    • 纽约联储
    • 美国联邦储备委员会每日更新
    • 欧洲货币联盟台前、台后外汇现货市场叫价-要价点差波动的微观结构及其效应
    • 经济合作和发展组织汇率统计
(译者:链接请参考Word文稿内容)


分类:外汇交易市场

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-12-29 02:28:08 | 显示全部楼层

译者注解

点差 Spread:
          在大多数的交易软件中,我们所看到某一货币对的点差通过买盘和卖盘反应出来,然而在买盘和卖盘的名称上有众多叫法,交易者特别是初学者常常被混淆。
        一般情况下:外汇交易软件中某货币对的高价即(银行或者做市商的)卖盘,是银行或者做市商原意卖出某货币对的高价,而对于使用客户终端软件散户来说似乎叫做买入价更合适,这也是MT4软件中文版翻译之后在市场报价窗口中标记为买价的原因,记住这是相对于希望在该价位成交的人而言,如按照即时价格挂单成交的散户。相反,可交易货币对中的低价即(银行或者做市商的)买盘则是市场上原意买入该货币对的挂单价格,银行做市商甚至散户都可以在买盘上挂单,但是如果以买盘即时价格成交,那么必然是卖出行为。
总结一下就是:
高价:是卖盘 也称作 ‘要价’ 英文 Offer/Ask/Sell price 在MT4市场报价窗口称为(客户的)买价;
低价:是买盘 也称作 ‘叫价’ 英文 Bid/Buy price 在MT4市场报价窗口称为(客户的)卖价。

券商 Brokers:
        关于券商实在有太多的话题,这里不可能一一道来,此处仅对词条内容略加解释。词条中提到的情况与目前(2009年末)大体相同;不同的是,词条解释中提到的两种典型的服务提供商与我们初入外汇的交易者常提到的ECN和MM还有不同,但是他们反映的两者却实质相同,即靠手续费生存还是点差生存,当然也有号称ECN平台的券商刻意拉大点差的情况,这样造成了两类券商界限更不明显。
        因为市场竞争激烈,完全与客户做对手交易的做市商已经越来越吃不开,更多的情况下,传统的做市商也会紧跟市场上的最优报价,只是在点差、返佣、奖励和出入金速度等方面有所不同,从而展开竞争。选择券商的时候客户也更加注重资金安全、点差佣金成本、后台操作、是否滑点、平台图表操作难易等方面,市场上也有很多小券商为了抓住新入市场的客户而铺天盖地发广告的,资金雄厚的投资者往往考虑更多的因素,如头寸信息是否会被泄露给银行或者交易对手等,在这个市场涉足越深,这方面的故事也就越多。

老欧洲:
      即使是美联储也不能任意安排市场上的某货币对的基础货币的位置,在崇尚标记文化的西方社会里,这从一个侧面反映出老欧洲在货币游戏中仍然是占有重要位置。美联储代表的是美洲新大陆的货币发行主权单位,而欧洲央行则是传统货币强权的新代言人。在备受争议的《货币战争》中美联储与老欧洲之间的关系却是千丝万缕。在21世纪里头30年里,货币战争也好货币游戏也好,两个主要玩家无疑就是他们二者了。

电缆Cable:
      经查,1858年横跨大西洋铺设海底电缆用于交换美元和英镑的汇率信息,之后市场交易人员称该货币对为“电缆”,之后虽然汇率信息传播媒介被光纤和卫星取代但是市场交易人员仍然沿用该昵称。实属资本主义糟粕。

自动交易 Algorithmic trading :
      这个词条对于很多资深玩家并不陌生,在维基百科中还有其他的几个称呼automated trading,  algo trading,  black-box trading,  robo trading。简单解释就是利用计算机的高速运算速度对市场上的各种金融工具进行分析,然后根据程序设定人员加入的参数,自动下单交易。计算机能够根据参数对市场短期内出现的获利机会自动交易从而减轻交易员的体力负担。
      对于大量的散户来说,这是象牙塔里的象牙,很难搞懂那些高深莫测的理论模型。而这些不同的交易者对于市场参数的设定又不尽相同,他们常常掌握大量资金,单靠人工交易已经力不从心,他们之间的博弈更像是各武林门派的华山论剑。
      自动交易给市场带来了大量的流动性,也会给市场带来一定的波动加剧,这使得根据经验来交易的普通投资者难于下手。然而,就笔者看来,这些大量的自动交易给如笔者一样散户不仅带来了威胁更多的则是机会。这个话题可以另外开一个帖子讨论了,以后再加详细论述。

经济数据:
        在西方工业7国,经济数据统计及其发布通常是由央行、政府或者行业协会承担的,由于历史的原因逐渐形成和稳定下来,他们反映了词条解释中提到的各种经济因素。
        耳熟能详的包括央行定期公布利率决议和货币发行量,政府公布预算方案和贸易账户余额及其变化、劳动就业状况,行业协会公布的零售和房地产指数等等。这些数据大部分反映了经济的真实变化,但是也有人相信央行或者政府公布的经济数据可能被与其拥有特殊利益关系的市场交易者提前获得,从而获取不公平的交易优势。有人称获取这种优势的行为具有“无边法力”。
        在实际的交易经验中,市场的主要玩家利用提前获知经济数据的特权来获利的迹象非常明显,具体的例证不在此指出。可以肯定的是经济数据发布时,特别是重要数据对相关货币在盘口走势的影响有时极具欺骗性已是不争的事实。
        另外,有的经济数据不合常理的被隐藏了,也是货币市场的一大奇观,比如,美联储就曾经在21世纪的头几年宣称货币发行量已经不具备参考价值,从而拒绝按照规定时间继续定期发布。
        反观欧洲在这方面则较为实在,几乎大大小小的经济数据都是一一公布。新兴经济体(比如中国)在建立经济数据发布体系方面有长足进展,但是中国政府与其他经济体做法却不尽相同,选择一个月的某一天集中发布几乎所有经济数据。

政治影响汇率:
      政治对于汇率的影响词条内容主要说明了西方社会体制下的一般情况,海湾战争、21世纪出现的恐怖主义突发事件也都会对汇率发生影响。维基百科在这里欠缺更多解释,但是政治对于汇率的影响一般也很难控制和预料。对于普通投资者而言,尽量避免这些风险实为上策。
      值得提一下的是,在上世纪90年代初,苏联解体中,汇率市场到底扮演何种角色还是未解之谜,到底是货币导致政治结果还是政治结果导致汇率波动还没有定论。
      不论如何,货币与政治的瓜葛远远不是书面上呈现出来的样子。

个人投资者的角色:
      文中提到的这种观点是引用[17]参考文献的观点,我没有仔细查看[17]的详细内容,只是看到文中有这种说法,我不得不发表一下自己的观点,仅仅是从维护一个散户的角度来谈一谈。
      个人投资者即我们说的散户,跟市场上其他玩家比,我们不具备任何优势,信息、消息、计算机、程序算法,对于汉语用户语言都不是优势,并且不同的散户还具有入场方向不确定性等因素,从而对冲其他散户的交易,怎么能说我们这群人会助推市场不稳定?
      发表这种言论只有一种解释,散户从这个市场上赚走了属于大玩家的利润,拿走了他们的蛋糕,才会有所谓的经济学家炮制这么一种论调。
      那么我们散户到底有什么优势能够从市场上分一杯羹呢?答案就是:散户的劣势就是我们的优势,信息、消息可能被利用来对付掉头迟钝的大玩家,对计算机和自动交易的依赖可能使大玩家忽略了人作为交易核心的重要性,整天被英语信息轰炸得焦头烂额还哪里有心思静下来交易。最关键的优势就是散户资金小,易于隐藏自己,不容易成为市场上的出头鸟,那些散户老手一枪一个准,摸透了敌人的脾气,大玩家恨死他们可是又打不到。所以才会有文中的言论叫嚣,企图从道义上扼杀散户存在的根基。我们只要用功一定能在这个波动剧烈且充满机会的市场上获得利润。
      散户的身份就决定了我们必须采取持久战的战略,就决定了我们必须采取游击战的战术,跟随毛主席的思想一枪一个敌人的在这个市场上获取生存的利润。以后可以专开一篇谈谈如何“读毛选炒外汇”。
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发表于 2009-12-29 04:27:14 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-1-2 03:01:57 | 显示全部楼层
!!!!
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发表于 2010-1-2 21:06:53 | 显示全部楼层
好东西啊.想收下了
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发表于 2010-1-3 01:24:44 | 显示全部楼层
感谢版主delphima 的无私奉献!
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